PCAR
PACCAR Inc.Pre-market108.13+0.09 +0.08%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
108.22
Prev close
108.04
Day range
107.92109.70
52-week range
92.25139.24
Volume
2.15M0.64×
Mkt cap
56.92B
P/E ttm
22.76
Fwd P/E
15.09
EPS ttm
4.75
Div yield
1.29%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−22.34%
PCAR market-implied price distribution
PCAR Price at Expiry
27 OTM quotes · ATM IV 35.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 108.13
Expected price
108.18
forward 108.38
68% range
98–118
−9.1% / +9.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 84.37 | −22.0% |
| 16% | 98.33 | −9.1% |
| 25% | 102.11 | −5.6% |
| 50% (median) | 108.54 | +0.4% |
| 75% | 114.69 | +6.1% |
| 84% | 118.00 | +9.1% |
| 95% | 127.55 | +18.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (113.54) | 29% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (118.94) | 14% |
| Down 5% or more (102.72) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (97.32) | 14% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 14%, 0.8× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.