PBLS
Parabilis Medicines, Inc.Closed28.95+1.47 +5.35%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 29.58 +2.17%
Open
27.32
Prev close
27.48
Day range
26.8329.49
52-week range
24.5142.49
Volume
1.20M1.70×
Mkt cap
3.58B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-13.24
EPS ttm
-9.03
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−31.87%
PBLS market-implied price distribution
PBLS Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 94.2%
Days to expiry
39
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
42%
spot 28.95
Expected price
28.93
forward 29.07
68% range
15–37
−46.7% / +28.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 9.93 | −65.7% |
| 16% | 15.42 | −46.7% |
| 25% | 21.23 | −26.7% |
| 50% (median) | 27.38 | −5.4% |
| 75% | 33.29 | +15.0% |
| 84% | 37.33 | +28.9% |
| 95% | 57.41 | +98.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (30.40) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (31.85) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (27.50) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (26.06) | 43% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 43%, 1.0× the 42% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.