PATK
Patrick Industries, Inc.After hours64.34+0.14 +0.22%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 64.34 0.00%
Open
64.37
Prev close
64.20
Day range
63.7864.61
52-week range
63.00148.50
Volume
764.42K1.42×
Mkt cap
2.07B
P/E ttm
15.32
Fwd P/E
12.42
EPS ttm
4.20
Div yield
2.93%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−56.67%
PATK market-implied price distribution
PATK Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 106.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
69%
spot 64.34
Expected price
75.46
forward 75.46
68% range
55–96
−14.2% / +48.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 43.74 | −32.0% |
| 16% | 55.23 | −14.2% |
| 25% | 61.09 | −5.0% |
| 50% (median) | 74.44 | +15.7% |
| 75% | 88.76 | +38.0% |
| 84% | 95.74 | +48.8% |
| 95% | 109.63 | +70.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (67.56) | 63% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (70.77) | 57% |
| Down 5% or more (61.12) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (57.91) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 0.7× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.