PAGP
Plains GP Holdings, L.P.Open27.10+0.35 +1.29%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
26.91
Prev close
26.76
Day range
26.7327.13
52-week range
16.6828.70
Volume
1.08M0.66×
Mkt cap
6.31B
P/E ttm
61.59
Fwd P/E
13.12
EPS ttm
0.4400
Div yield
6.24%
Earnings
Nov 6, 2026
From 52w high
−5.57%
PAGP market-implied price distribution
PAGP Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 20.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
38%
spot 27.10
Expected price
26.45
forward 26.72
68% range
25–28
−7.6% / +4.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 17.21 | −36.5% |
| 16% | 25.05 | −7.6% |
| 25% | 25.72 | −5.1% |
| 50% (median) | 26.69 | −1.5% |
| 75% | 27.63 | +2.0% |
| 84% | 28.23 | +4.2% |
| 95% | 33.35 | +23.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (28.46) | 14% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (29.81) | 7.9% |
| Down 5% or more (25.75) | 26% |
| Down 10% or more (24.39) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 1.4× the 8.3% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.