OTLY
Oatly Group ABOpen11.03+0.36 +3.37%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 15:15 ET · 15m delay
Open
10.78
Prev close
10.67
Day range
10.5611.03
52-week range
8.0116.42
Volume
68.14K0.59×
Mkt cap
351.99M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-5.29
EPS ttm
-4.20
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−32.84%
OTLY market-implied price distribution
OTLY Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 115.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
32%
spot 10.96
Expected price
11.05
forward 11.05
68% range
8–16
−27.7% / +45.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 6.56 | −40.2% |
| 16% | 7.93 | −27.7% |
| 25% | 8.70 | −20.6% |
| 50% (median) | 9.97 | −9.0% |
| 75% | 14.34 | +30.8% |
| 84% | 15.92 | +45.2% |
| 95% | 16.84 | +53.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (11.51) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (12.06) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (10.41) | 67% |
| Down 10% or more (9.87) | 41% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 41%, 0.9× the 45% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.