ORIC
Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Open11.52−0.29 −2.46%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:42 ET · 15m delay
Open
11.68
Prev close
11.81
Day range
11.3611.92
52-week range
7.2314.68
Volume
510.22K0.35×
Mkt cap
1.19B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-6.88
EPS ttm
-1.32
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 3, 2026
From 52w high
−21.53%
ORIC market-implied price distribution
ORIC Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 200.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 11.52
Expected price
12.32
forward 12.65
68% range
3–16
−71.3% / +40.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 1.65 | −85.7% |
| 16% | 3.31 | −71.3% |
| 25% | 7.21 | −37.4% |
| 50% (median) | 10.84 | −5.9% |
| 75% | 14.02 | +21.7% |
| 84% | 16.23 | +40.9% |
| 95% | 30.72 | +166.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.10) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (12.67) | 34% |
| Down 5% or more (10.94) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (10.37) | 46% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 46%, 0.9× the 51% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.