ORCL
Oracle CorporationPre-market137.39−4.01 −2.84%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:03 ET · 20m delayPre-market 136.60 −0.58%
Open
141.56
Prev close
141.40
Day range
136.54141.41
52-week range
114.50322.54
Volume
21.37M0.69×
Mkt cap
416.50B
P/E ttm
20.91
Fwd P/E
12.49
EPS ttm
6.57
Div yield
1.46%
Earnings
Dec 14, 2026
From 52w high
−57.40%
ORCL market-implied price distribution
ORCL Price at Expiry
51 OTM quotes · ATM IV 53.8%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 137.39
Expected price
138.15
forward 137.89
68% range
117–159
−15.0% / +15.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 104.92 | −23.6% |
| 16% | 116.72 | −15.0% |
| 25% | 122.60 | −10.8% |
| 50% (median) | 135.73 | −1.2% |
| 75% | 150.71 | +9.7% |
| 84% | 158.91 | +15.7% |
| 95% | 179.55 | +30.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (144.26) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (151.13) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (130.52) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (123.65) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 1.0× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.