OLMA
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.After hours7.02−0.34 −4.62%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 7.02 0.00%
Open
7.30
Prev close
7.36
Day range
7.007.36
52-week range
6.6536.26
Volume
1.42M1.35×
Mkt cap
614.23M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-2.66
EPS ttm
-2.12
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−80.64%
OLMA market-implied price distribution
OLMA Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 147.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
24%
spot 7.02
Expected price
7.25
forward 7.05
68% range
6–12
−16.0% / +64.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 5.44 | −22.4% |
| 16% | 5.90 | −16.0% |
| 25% | 5.93 | −15.5% |
| 50% (median) | 6.01 | −14.4% |
| 75% | 6.13 | −12.7% |
| 84% | 11.55 | +64.5% |
| 95% | 11.76 | +67.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (7.37) | 24% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (7.72) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (6.67) | 76% |
| Down 10% or more (6.32) | 76% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 76%, 1.5× the 50% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.