OILS.CN
NextleafSolnsOpenOILS.CN discounted cash flow valuation
OILS.CN Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 57.9% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from 3-yr revenue CAGR (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 10.81% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CAD 413.69K |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (57% of EV) | CAD 550.30K |
| Enterprise value | CAD 963.99K |
| + Cash & investments | CAD 92.08K |
| − Total debt | −CAD 394.74K |
| Equity value | CAD 661.33K |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 170.21M |
| Value per share | CAD 0.003885 |
| Market cap | CAD 4.26M |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.27% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.14 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 10.98% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 26.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 8.5% |
| WACC | 10.81% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.81% | 0.005162 | 0.005571 | 0.006044 | 0.006599 | 0.007258 |
| 9.81% | 0.004179 | 0.004476 | 0.004813 | 0.005199 | 0.005647 |
| 10.81% | 0.003414 | 0.003637 | 0.003885 | 0.004166 | 0.004485 |
| 11.81% | 0.002804 | 0.002975 | 0.003164 | 0.003374 | 0.003610 |
| 12.81% | 0.002307 | 0.002441 | 0.002587 | 0.002749 | 0.002928 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CAD 23.87K | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | CAD 29.84K | 0.902 | CAD 26.93K |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | CAD 37.30K | 0.814 | CAD 30.38K |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | CAD 46.63K | 0.735 | CAD 34.27K |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | CAD 58.28K | 0.663 | CAD 38.66K |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | CAD 72.85K | 0.599 | CAD 43.61K |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | CAD 87.79K | 0.540 | CAD 47.42K |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | CAD 101.83K | 0.487 | CAD 49.64K |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | CAD 113.54K | 0.440 | CAD 49.95K |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | CAD 121.49K | 0.397 | CAD 48.23K |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CAD 124.53K | 0.358 | CAD 44.61K |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.