OBDC
Blue Owl Capital CorporationOpen10.02−0.10 −0.99%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 13:45 ET · 20m delay
Open
10.17
Prev close
10.12
Day range
10.0010.17
52-week range
9.8213.58
Volume
1.72M0.46×
Mkt cap
4.97B
P/E ttm
17.89
Fwd P/E
7.66
EPS ttm
0.5600
Div yield
12.25%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−26.19%
OBDC market-implied price distribution
OBDC Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 30.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 10.02
Expected price
9.98
forward 10.13
68% range
9–11
−6.2% / +5.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.87 | −11.4% |
| 16% | 9.40 | −6.2% |
| 25% | 9.58 | −4.4% |
| 50% (median) | 9.93 | −0.9% |
| 75% | 10.32 | +3.0% |
| 84% | 10.55 | +5.3% |
| 95% | 11.24 | +12.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (10.52) | 17% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (11.02) | 7.0% |
| Down 5% or more (9.52) | 22% |
| Down 10% or more (9.02) | 6.7% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 6.7%, 0.5× the 13% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.