O
Realty Income CorporationPre-market54.70+0.52 +0.96%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 55.00 +0.57%
Open
54.15
Prev close
54.18
Day range
53.9054.74
52-week range
53.1567.94
Volume
7.63M1.16×
Mkt cap
51.76B
P/E ttm
39.64
Fwd P/E
35.22
EPS ttm
1.38
Div yield
5.96%
Earnings
Nov 2, 2026
From 52w high
−19.49%
O market-implied price distribution
O Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 17.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 54.70
Expected price
54.31
forward 54.56
68% range
52–57
−5.6% / +4.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 48.57 | −11.2% |
| 16% | 51.65 | −5.6% |
| 25% | 52.66 | −3.7% |
| 50% (median) | 54.49 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 56.29 | +2.9% |
| 84% | 57.23 | +4.6% |
| 95% | 59.65 | +9.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (57.44) | 14% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (60.17) | 4.0% |
| Down 5% or more (51.97) | 18% |
| Down 10% or more (49.23) | 6.1% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 6.1%, 1.5× the 4.1% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.