NTES
NetEase, Inc.After hours124.76−0.65 −0.52%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 124.76 0.00%
Open
125.08
Prev close
125.41
Day range
124.29125.60
52-week range
106.06153.54
Volume
503.70K0.66×
Mkt cap
79.89B
P/E ttm
17.33
Fwd P/E
11.58
EPS ttm
7.20
Div yield
2.34%
Earnings
Aug 20, 2026
From 52w high
−18.74%
NTES market-implied price distribution
NTES Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 38.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 124.76
Expected price
125.39
forward 125.45
68% range
111–140
−11.4% / +12.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 99.29 | −20.4% |
| 16% | 110.55 | −11.4% |
| 25% | 115.31 | −7.6% |
| 50% (median) | 124.92 | +0.1% |
| 75% | 134.89 | +8.1% |
| 84% | 140.12 | +12.3% |
| 95% | 153.17 | +22.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (131.00) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (137.24) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (118.52) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (112.28) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 0.9× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.