NSC
Norfolk Southern CorporationPre-market319.36+1.57 +0.49%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
316.05
Prev close
317.79
Day range
316.57319.53
52-week range
277.80358.60
Volume
333.41K0.30×
Mkt cap
71.73B
P/E ttm
27.39
Fwd P/E
22.31
EPS ttm
11.66
Div yield
1.69%
Earnings
Oct 22, 2026
From 52w high
−10.94%
NSC market-implied price distribution
NSC Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 25.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 319.36
Expected price
315.76
forward 317.19
68% range
292–341
−8.7% / +6.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 257.11 | −19.5% |
| 16% | 291.67 | −8.7% |
| 25% | 301.38 | −5.6% |
| 50% (median) | 318.13 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 333.39 | +4.4% |
| 84% | 340.95 | +6.8% |
| 95% | 359.44 | +12.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (335.33) | 22% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (351.30) | 8.3% |
| Down 5% or more (303.39) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (287.42) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 1.1× the 12% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.