NPH.JO
Northam Platinum Hldgs LtdOpenNPH.JO discounted cash flow valuation
NPH.JO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -8.5% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 9.4% in this model.
Model: 9.4% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 9.99% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | ZAR 117.65B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (53% of EV) | ZAR 135.04B |
| Enterprise value | ZAR 252.69B |
| + Cash & investments | ZAR 13.71B |
| − Total debt | −ZAR 11.08B |
| Equity value | ZAR 255.32B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 393.72M |
| Value per share | ZAR 648.48 |
| Market cap | ZAR 96.34B |
Quoted in ZAc, valued in ZAR.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.99 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 10.19% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 10.26% |
| Tax rate | 19.5% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 10.3% |
| WACC | 9.99% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.99% | 791.93 | 840.85 | 898.66 | 968.05 | 1,052.86 |
| 8.99% | 680.05 | 714.44 | 754.11 | 800.40 | 855.10 |
| 9.99% | 594.84 | 619.99 | 648.48 | 681.03 | 718.60 |
| 10.99% | 527.85 | 546.81 | 567.99 | 591.80 | 618.79 |
| 11.99% | 473.87 | 488.50 | 504.67 | 522.64 | 542.71 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | ZAR 12.64B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 9.4% | ZAR 13.83B | 0.909 | ZAR 12.57B |
| Year 2 | 9.4% | ZAR 15.13B | 0.827 | ZAR 12.50B |
| Year 3 | 9.4% | ZAR 16.55B | 0.752 | ZAR 12.44B |
| Year 4 | 9.4% | ZAR 18.10B | 0.683 | ZAR 12.37B |
| Year 5 | 9.4% | ZAR 19.81B | 0.621 | ZAR 12.30B |
| Year 6 | 8.0% | ZAR 21.39B | 0.565 | ZAR 12.08B |
| Year 7 | 6.6% | ZAR 22.82B | 0.513 | ZAR 11.72B |
| Year 8 | 5.3% | ZAR 24.02B | 0.467 | ZAR 11.21B |
| Year 9 | 3.9% | ZAR 24.95B | 0.424 | ZAR 10.59B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | ZAR 25.57B | 0.386 | ZAR 9.87B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.