NPCE
Neuropace, Inc.Pre-market12.68−0.32 −2.46%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
13.06
Prev close
13.00
Day range
12.6813.27
52-week range
9.2219.60
Volume
66.78K0.40×
Mkt cap
435.23M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-58.30
EPS ttm
-0.5700
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 11, 2026
From 52w high
−35.31%
NPCE market-implied price distribution
NPCE Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 71.9%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
33%
spot 12.68
Expected price
12.94
forward 12.73
68% range
10–14
−22.8% / +9.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.73 | −39.1% |
| 16% | 9.79 | −22.8% |
| 25% | 10.89 | −14.1% |
| 50% (median) | 12.03 | −5.1% |
| 75% | 13.13 | +3.5% |
| 84% | 13.92 | +9.8% |
| 95% | 25.59 | +101.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (13.31) | 22% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.95) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (12.05) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (11.41) | 34% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 34%, 1.0× the 36% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.