NOVO-B.CO
Novo Nordisk B A/SClosedNOVO-B.CO discounted cash flow valuation
NOVO-B.CO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 1.4% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 1.6% in this model.
Model: 1.6% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.32% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | DKK 359.81B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (63% of EV) | DKK 603.45B |
| Enterprise value | DKK 963.25B |
| + Cash & investments | DKK 44.98B |
| − Total debt | −DKK 140.13B |
| Equity value | DKK 868.11B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 3.34B |
| Value per share | DKK 260.05 |
| Market cap | DKK 1.13T |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 21.5% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 11.0% |
| WACC | 7.32% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.32% | 354.22 | 400.50 | 463.16 | 552.83 | 691.74 |
| 6.32% | 274.77 | 301.42 | 335.04 | 378.77 | 438.00 |
| 7.32% | 222.62 | 239.58 | 260.05 | 285.25 | 317.04 |
| 8.32% | 185.77 | 197.30 | 210.81 | 226.86 | 246.23 |
| 9.32% | 158.34 | 166.57 | 176.00 | 186.92 | 199.72 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | DKK 47.79B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.6% | DKK 48.55B | 0.932 | DKK 45.24B |
| Year 2 | 1.6% | DKK 49.33B | 0.868 | DKK 42.83B |
| Year 3 | 1.6% | DKK 50.12B | 0.809 | DKK 40.55B |
| Year 4 | 1.6% | DKK 50.92B | 0.754 | DKK 38.39B |
| Year 5 | 1.6% | DKK 51.74B | 0.702 | DKK 36.34B |
| Year 6 | 1.8% | DKK 52.66B | 0.655 | DKK 34.46B |
| Year 7 | 2.0% | DKK 53.69B | 0.610 | DKK 32.74B |
| Year 8 | 2.1% | DKK 54.84B | 0.568 | DKK 31.16B |
| Year 9 | 2.3% | DKK 56.11B | 0.530 | DKK 29.71B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | DKK 57.51B | 0.493 | DKK 28.38B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.