NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.Open26.47+1.05 +4.11%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 20m delay
Open
25.42
Prev close
25.42
Day range
25.3626.48
52-week range
17.1831.17
Volume
1.27M0.56×
Mkt cap
2.82B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
5.64
EPS ttm
-4.85
Div yield
7.08%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−15.09%
NOG market-implied price distribution
NOG Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 45.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 26.47
Expected price
26.23
forward 26.45
68% range
22–30
−15.0% / +13.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 16.31 | −38.4% |
| 16% | 22.48 | −15.0% |
| 25% | 23.94 | −9.6% |
| 50% (median) | 26.33 | −0.5% |
| 75% | 28.71 | +8.5% |
| 84% | 30.11 | +13.8% |
| 95% | 34.50 | +30.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (27.79) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (29.11) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (25.14) | 36% |
| Down 10% or more (23.82) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 0.9× the 26% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.