Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
8.67
−33.1%
16%
10.14
−21.8%
25%
11.08
−14.5%
50% (median)
12.70
−2.0%
75%
14.33
+10.6%
84%
15.32
+18.2%
95%
19.81
+52.9%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (13.61)
35%
Up 10% or more (14.26)
26%
Down 5% or more (12.31)
43%
Down 10% or more (11.66)
33%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 0.9× the 36% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.