NKTR
Nektar TherapeuticsAfter hours37.92−1.92 −4.82%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 38.48 +1.48%
Open
39.65
Prev close
39.84
Day range
37.7839.83
52-week range
33.40109.00
Volume
2.04M1.88×
Mkt cap
1.29B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-3.68
EPS ttm
-18.96
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−65.21%
NKTR market-implied price distribution
NKTR Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 68.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
41%
spot 37.92
Expected price
38.41
forward 38.05
68% range
30–46
−20.4% / +20.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 26.94 | −29.0% |
| 16% | 30.17 | −20.4% |
| 25% | 31.90 | −15.9% |
| 50% (median) | 36.25 | −4.4% |
| 75% | 42.13 | +11.1% |
| 84% | 45.85 | +20.9% |
| 95% | 57.75 | +52.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (39.82) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (41.71) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (36.02) | 49% |
| Down 10% or more (34.13) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 1.1× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.