NHC
National HealthCare CorporationOpen231.63+1.75 +0.76%USD
NYSE American · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET
Open
231.01
Prev close
229.88
Day range
229.40232.77
52-week range
117.22239.29
Volume
31.59K0.30×
Mkt cap
3.63B
P/E ttm
26.06
Fwd P/E
538.67
EPS ttm
8.89
Div yield
1.17%
Earnings
Aug 7, 2026
From 52w high
−3.20%
NHC market-implied price distribution
NHC Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 37.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
59%
spot 231.63
Expected price
235.47
forward 232.90
68% range
214–260
−7.5% / +12.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 132.34 | −42.9% |
| 16% | 214.15 | −7.5% |
| 25% | 222.74 | −3.8% |
| 50% (median) | 235.75 | +1.8% |
| 75% | 249.26 | +7.6% |
| 84% | 259.80 | +12.2% |
| 95% | 303.61 | +31.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (243.21) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (254.79) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (220.05) | 22% |
| Down 10% or more (208.47) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 0.6× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.