NGVT
Ingevity CorporationOpen69.13+0.06 +0.09%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:21 ET · 20m delay
Open
69.27
Prev close
69.07
Day range
68.8669.44
52-week range
45.8579.29
Volume
31.71K0.13×
Mkt cap
2.38B
P/E ttm
97.37
Fwd P/E
11.50
EPS ttm
0.7100
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−12.81%
NGVT market-implied price distribution
NGVT Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 115.9%
Days to expiry
3
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
P(finish above spot)
36%
spot 69.13
Expected price
68.20
forward 69.15
68% range
61–74
−11.7% / +7.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 47.75 | −30.9% |
| 16% | 61.05 | −11.7% |
| 25% | 63.37 | −8.3% |
| 50% (median) | 67.11 | −2.9% |
| 75% | 71.27 | +3.1% |
| 84% | 74.03 | +7.1% |
| 95% | 87.60 | +26.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (72.59) | 20% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (76.04) | 12% |
| Down 5% or more (65.67) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (62.22) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.1× the 18% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.