NGL
NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LPOpen15.03+0.36 +2.46%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 20m delay
Open
14.62
Prev close
14.67
Day range
14.6015.04
52-week range
6.0419.06
Volume
94.57K0.44×
Mkt cap
—
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
—
EPS ttm
-2.75
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−21.14%
NGL market-implied price distribution
NGL Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 67.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 15.03
Expected price
14.98
forward 15.09
68% range
12–18
−21.3% / +18.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.84 | −41.2% |
| 16% | 11.83 | −21.3% |
| 25% | 13.03 | −13.3% |
| 50% (median) | 14.90 | −0.9% |
| 75% | 16.73 | +11.3% |
| 84% | 17.81 | +18.5% |
| 95% | 21.74 | +44.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (15.78) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (16.53) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (14.28) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (13.53) | 30% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 0.9× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.