NG
Novagold Resources Inc.Open6.57−0.16 −2.45%USD
NYSE American · as of Oct 13, 11:50 ET
Open
6.76
Prev close
6.73
Day range
6.566.81
52-week range
5.0814.40
Volume
1.58M0.29×
Mkt cap
2.88B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-33.77
EPS ttm
-0.2100
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 8, 2026
From 52w high
−54.41%
NG market-implied price distribution
NG Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 60.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 6.57
Expected price
6.67
forward 6.69
68% range
5–8
−22.2% / +18.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.16 | −36.6% |
| 16% | 5.11 | −22.2% |
| 25% | 5.77 | −12.1% |
| 50% (median) | 6.63 | +0.9% |
| 75% | 7.38 | +12.4% |
| 84% | 7.80 | +18.8% |
| 95% | 9.32 | +42.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (6.89) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (7.22) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (6.24) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (5.91) | 28% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 28%, 0.9× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.