NFG
National Fuel Gas CompanyOpen81.09+1.38 +1.73%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:49 ET · 20m delay
Open
80.50
Prev close
79.71
Day range
79.8781.15
52-week range
75.0397.06
Volume
468.62K0.66×
Mkt cap
7.71B
P/E ttm
11.29
Fwd P/E
10.88
EPS ttm
7.18
Div yield
2.79%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−16.45%
NFG market-implied price distribution
NFG Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 27.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 81.09
Expected price
81.29
forward 81.43
68% range
74–88
−8.7% / +8.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 67.85 | −16.3% |
| 16% | 74.07 | −8.7% |
| 25% | 76.63 | −5.5% |
| 50% (median) | 81.30 | +0.3% |
| 75% | 85.87 | +5.9% |
| 84% | 88.27 | +8.8% |
| 95% | 94.72 | +16.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (85.14) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (89.20) | 13% |
| Down 5% or more (77.04) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (72.98) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 1.1× the 12% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.