NE
Noble Corporation plc AOpen43.72+0.78 +1.82%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:47 ET · 20m delay
Open
43.61
Prev close
42.94
Day range
43.3144.17
52-week range
26.7354.98
Volume
343.55K0.26×
Mkt cap
6.98B
P/E ttm
46.51
Fwd P/E
21.69
EPS ttm
0.9400
Div yield
4.66%
Earnings
Oct 26, 2026
From 52w high
−20.48%
NE market-implied price distribution
NE Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 47.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 43.72
Expected price
43.86
forward 43.91
68% range
37–50
−15.2% / +15.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 33.43 | −23.5% |
| 16% | 37.07 | −15.2% |
| 25% | 39.33 | −10.0% |
| 50% (median) | 43.71 | −0.0% |
| 75% | 48.18 | +10.2% |
| 84% | 50.35 | +15.2% |
| 95% | 54.87 | +25.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (45.91) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (48.09) | 25% |
| Down 5% or more (41.53) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (39.35) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 1.0× the 26% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.