NAKA
Nakamoto Inc.After hours8.58+0.32 +3.87%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 8.58 0.00%
Open
8.22
Prev close
8.26
Day range
8.198.65
52-week range
3.3342.00
Volume
69.35K0.34×
Mkt cap
153.54M
P/E ttm
4.59
Fwd P/E
—
EPS ttm
1.87
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−79.57%
NAKA market-implied price distribution
NAKA Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 146.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 8.58
Expected price
8.91
forward 8.48
68% range
5–12
−43.3% / +39.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 3.51 | −59.1% |
| 16% | 4.86 | −43.3% |
| 25% | 5.72 | −33.3% |
| 50% (median) | 8.40 | −2.1% |
| 75% | 10.55 | +22.9% |
| 84% | 11.95 | +39.2% |
| 95% | 17.93 | +109.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (9.01) | 42% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (9.44) | 36% |
| Down 5% or more (8.15) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (7.72) | 46% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 46%, 0.9× the 51% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.