MTZ
MasTec, Inc.Open205.63−1.23 −0.59%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
202.58
Prev close
206.85
Day range
200.00207.88
52-week range
182.34441.43
Volume
164.36K0.11×
Mkt cap
16.51B
P/E ttm
32.80
Fwd P/E
16.58
EPS ttm
6.27
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−53.42%
MTZ market-implied price distribution
MTZ Price at Expiry
32 OTM quotes · ATM IV 66.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 205.64
Expected price
205.83
forward 206.64
68% range
161–246
−21.7% / +19.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 120.54 | −41.4% |
| 16% | 160.99 | −21.7% |
| 25% | 176.08 | −14.4% |
| 50% (median) | 203.18 | −1.2% |
| 75% | 230.65 | +12.2% |
| 84% | 245.76 | +19.5% |
| 95% | 289.39 | +40.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (215.92) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (226.20) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (195.35) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (185.07) | 32% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 32%, 0.9× the 34% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.