MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions HoldOpen299.52−6.84 −2.23%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 15m delay
Open
296.12
Prev close
306.36
Day range
290.20306.03
52-week range
126.93418.90
Volume
350.90K0.26×
Mkt cap
22.87B
P/E ttm
95.39
Fwd P/E
35.28
EPS ttm
3.14
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−28.50%
MTSI market-implied price distribution
MTSI Price at Expiry
49 OTM quotes · ATM IV 68.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 299.52
Expected price
304.85
forward 304.73
68% range
241–365
−19.4% / +22.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 183.93 | −38.6% |
| 16% | 241.27 | −19.4% |
| 25% | 261.81 | −12.6% |
| 50% (median) | 301.31 | +0.6% |
| 75% | 342.60 | +14.4% |
| 84% | 365.44 | +22.0% |
| 95% | 431.56 | +44.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (314.49) | 41% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (329.47) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (284.54) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (269.56) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 0.9× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.