MTH
Meritage Homes CorporationOpen58.36+0.51 +0.88%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 12:41 ET · 20m delay
Open
58.75
Prev close
57.85
Day range
57.7458.95
52-week range
57.6385.38
Volume
318.95K0.38×
Mkt cap
3.80B
P/E ttm
12.18
Fwd P/E
10.44
EPS ttm
4.79
Div yield
3.32%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−31.65%
MTH market-implied price distribution
MTH Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 41.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 58.36
Expected price
59.55
forward 59.10
68% range
50–66
−13.6% / +13.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 44.09 | −24.4% |
| 16% | 50.41 | −13.6% |
| 25% | 54.06 | −7.4% |
| 50% (median) | 58.66 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 63.19 | +8.3% |
| 84% | 66.43 | +13.8% |
| 95% | 80.79 | +38.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (61.28) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (64.20) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (55.44) | 31% |
| Down 10% or more (52.52) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.0× the 21% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.