MT
Arcelor Mittal NY Registry SharOpen63.47+0.52 +0.83%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
63.75
Prev close
62.95
Day range
63.1263.91
52-week range
36.7079.68
Volume
435.53K0.31×
Mkt cap
47.73B
P/E ttm
26.78
Fwd P/E
8.94
EPS ttm
2.37
Div yield
0.95%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−20.34%
MT market-implied price distribution
MT Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 63.47
Expected price
63.57
forward 63.69
68% range
55–72
−13.4% / +13.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 48.94 | −22.9% |
| 16% | 54.98 | −13.4% |
| 25% | 57.93 | −8.7% |
| 50% (median) | 63.27 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 68.72 | +8.3% |
| 84% | 71.77 | +13.1% |
| 95% | 79.57 | +25.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (66.64) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (69.82) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (60.30) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (57.12) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 1.0× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.