MSTR
Strategy IncPre-market152.68−1.66 −1.08%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 155.10 +1.59%
Open
153.22
Prev close
154.34
Day range
150.84158.40
52-week range
81.81312.71
Volume
12.88M0.59×
Mkt cap
60.88B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
3.09
EPS ttm
-99.08
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−51.18%
MSTR market-implied price distribution
MSTR Price at Expiry
52 OTM quotes · ATM IV 65.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 152.68
Expected price
153.79
forward 153.31
68% range
125–180
−17.8% / +18.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 107.68 | −29.5% |
| 16% | 125.43 | −17.8% |
| 25% | 133.43 | −12.6% |
| 50% (median) | 150.45 | −1.5% |
| 75% | 169.64 | +11.1% |
| 84% | 180.43 | +18.2% |
| 95% | 210.21 | +37.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (160.31) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (167.95) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (145.05) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (137.41) | 30% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 0.9× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.