MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Company, Open130.27+1.60 +1.24%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
130.37
Prev close
128.67
Day range
127.39130.98
52-week range
78.80132.33
Volume
57.40K0.08×
Mkt cap
—
P/E ttm
31.46
Fwd P/E
23.75
EPS ttm
4.14
Div yield
2.70%
Earnings
Oct 22, 2026
From 52w high
−1.56%
MSM market-implied price distribution
MSM Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 34.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 130.27
Expected price
129.84
forward 130.17
68% range
116–144
−11.1% / +10.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 103.41 | −20.6% |
| 16% | 115.80 | −11.1% |
| 25% | 121.05 | −7.1% |
| 50% (median) | 130.99 | +0.6% |
| 75% | 139.83 | +7.3% |
| 84% | 143.72 | +10.3% |
| 95% | 150.86 | +15.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (136.78) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (143.29) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (123.75) | 31% |
| Down 10% or more (117.24) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.0× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.