MSGS
Madison Square Garden Sports CoPre-market403.34+1.04 +0.26%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
404.36
Prev close
402.30
Day range
400.45411.24
52-week range
207.90438.93
Volume
433.96K1.73×
Mkt cap
9.71B
P/E ttm
1260.44
Fwd P/E
-886.19
EPS ttm
0.3200
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−8.11%
MSGS market-implied price distribution
MSGS Price at Expiry
37 OTM quotes · ATM IV 31.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
53%
spot 403.34
Expected price
407.25
forward 404.86
68% range
371–441
−8.0% / +9.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 342.53 | −15.1% |
| 16% | 370.97 | −8.0% |
| 25% | 382.69 | −5.1% |
| 50% (median) | 405.43 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 428.51 | +6.2% |
| 84% | 440.83 | +9.3% |
| 95% | 474.29 | +17.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (423.51) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (443.67) | 14% |
| Down 5% or more (383.17) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (363.01) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 0.7× the 16% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.