MSFU
Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X ETFOpen44.07+0.50 +1.15%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
44.18
Prev close
43.57
Day range
44.0145.17
52-week range
19.4758.89
Volume
1.97M0.45×
P/E ttm
32.03
EPS ttm
1.38
Div yield
2.03%
From 52w high
−25.17%
MSFU market-implied price distribution
MSFU Price at Expiry
24 OTM quotes · ATM IV 59.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 44.07
Expected price
44.23
forward 44.48
68% range
36–52
−17.7% / +18.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.81 | −34.6% |
| 16% | 36.26 | −17.7% |
| 25% | 38.92 | −11.7% |
| 50% (median) | 44.06 | −0.0% |
| 75% | 49.41 | +12.1% |
| 84% | 52.34 | +18.8% |
| 95% | 59.87 | +35.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (46.27) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (48.48) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (41.87) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (39.66) | 28% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 28%, 0.9× the 31% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.