MS
Morgan StanleyPre-market190.020.00 0.00%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 192.01 +1.05%
Open
190.22
Prev close
190.02
Day range
189.18192.08
52-week range
151.88232.25
Volume
3.86M0.74×
Mkt cap
298.44B
P/E ttm
15.35
Fwd P/E
14.00
EPS ttm
12.38
Div yield
2.42%
Earnings
Oct 14, 2026
From 52w high
−18.18%
MS market-implied price distribution
MS Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 33.7%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 190.02
Expected price
188.64
forward 188.69
68% range
171–207
−10.2% / +8.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 159.19 | −16.2% |
| 16% | 170.69 | −10.2% |
| 25% | 176.27 | −7.2% |
| 50% (median) | 188.13 | −1.0% |
| 75% | 200.43 | +5.5% |
| 84% | 206.52 | +8.7% |
| 95% | 219.69 | +15.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (199.52) | 27% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (209.02) | 13% |
| Down 5% or more (180.52) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (171.02) | 16% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 16%, 1.0× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.