MQ
Marqeta, Inc.Open18.52+0.22 +1.23%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:37 ET · 15m delay
Open
18.48
Prev close
18.29
Day range
18.3218.65
52-week range
14.8022.28
Volume
323.82K0.34×
Mkt cap
1.93B
P/E ttm
185.15
Fwd P/E
37.03
EPS ttm
0.1000
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−16.90%
MQ market-implied price distribution
MQ Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 51.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 18.52
Expected price
18.02
forward 18.59
68% range
15–21
−21.2% / +14.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 10.65 | −42.5% |
| 16% | 14.59 | −21.2% |
| 25% | 16.56 | −10.5% |
| 50% (median) | 18.43 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 20.02 | +8.1% |
| 84% | 21.12 | +14.1% |
| 95% | 23.82 | +28.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (19.44) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (20.37) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (17.59) | 36% |
| Down 10% or more (16.66) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 0.9× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.