MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.Pre-market1,319.23−67.06 −4.84%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 1,293.17 −1.98%
Open
1,364.44
Prev close
1,386.29
Day range
1,314.521,365.36
52-week range
833.181,714.09
Volume
830.61K1.12×
Mkt cap
64.83B
P/E ttm
76.34
Fwd P/E
37.72
EPS ttm
17.28
Div yield
0.61%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−23.04%
MPWR market-implied price distribution
MPWR Price at Expiry
116 OTM quotes · ATM IV 60.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 1,319.23
Expected price
1,373.03
forward 1,347.79
68% range
1,114–1,577
−15.6% / +19.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 923.07 | −30.0% |
| 16% | 1,113.61 | −15.6% |
| 25% | 1,180.61 | −10.5% |
| 50% (median) | 1,314.55 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 1,473.02 | +11.7% |
| 84% | 1,576.99 | +19.5% |
| 95% | 2,145.85 | +62.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (1,385.19) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (1,451.15) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (1,253.27) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (1,187.31) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 0.9× the 29% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.