MPLX
MPLX LPOpen56.94+0.10 +0.18%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
57.12
Prev close
56.83
Day range
56.7557.26
52-week range
47.9460.95
Volume
77.11K0.06×
Mkt cap
57.72B
P/E ttm
12.24
Fwd P/E
11.81
EPS ttm
4.65
Div yield
7.58%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−6.59%
MPLX market-implied price distribution
MPLX Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 19.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 56.94
Expected price
56.83
forward 56.90
68% range
54–60
−5.3% / +5.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 50.24 | −11.8% |
| 16% | 53.93 | −5.3% |
| 25% | 55.22 | −3.0% |
| 50% (median) | 57.41 | +0.8% |
| 75% | 59.27 | +4.1% |
| 84% | 60.12 | +5.6% |
| 95% | 61.96 | +8.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (59.78) | 19% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (62.63) | 3.2% |
| Down 5% or more (54.09) | 17% |
| Down 10% or more (51.24) | 6.7% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 6.7%, 1.4× the 4.9% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.