MOS
Mosaic Company (The)Pre-market18.85+0.11 +0.59%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 18.94 +0.48%
Open
18.81
Prev close
18.74
Day range
18.4119.00
52-week range
18.4132.25
Volume
10.98M1.33×
Mkt cap
5.99B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
11.98
EPS ttm
-2.00
Div yield
4.67%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−41.55%
MOS market-implied price distribution
MOS Price at Expiry
18 OTM quotes · ATM IV 56.7%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 18.85
Expected price
19.08
forward 18.94
68% range
16–22
−13.3% / +15.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 14.92 | −20.9% |
| 16% | 16.35 | −13.3% |
| 25% | 16.99 | −9.9% |
| 50% (median) | 18.34 | −2.7% |
| 75% | 20.43 | +8.4% |
| 84% | 21.75 | +15.4% |
| 95% | 26.11 | +38.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (19.79) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (20.74) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (17.91) | 43% |
| Down 10% or more (16.97) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 0.9× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.