MOD
Modine Manufacturing CompanyPre-market172.50−9.06 −4.99%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 169.94 −1.47%
Open
179.44
Prev close
181.56
Day range
171.94182.20
52-week range
111.18323.25
Volume
953.73K0.68×
Mkt cap
9.16B
P/E ttm
64.85
Fwd P/E
16.99
EPS ttm
2.66
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−46.64%
MOD market-implied price distribution
MOD Price at Expiry
33 OTM quotes · ATM IV 80.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
58%
spot 172.50
Expected price
182.55
forward 184.18
68% range
134–231
−22.5% / +33.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 92.55 | −46.3% |
| 16% | 133.65 | −22.5% |
| 25% | 149.95 | −13.1% |
| 50% (median) | 182.28 | +5.7% |
| 75% | 214.53 | +24.4% |
| 84% | 230.51 | +33.6% |
| 95% | 265.92 | +54.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (181.13) | 51% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (189.75) | 44% |
| Down 5% or more (163.88) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (155.25) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 1.0× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.