MLTX
MoonLake ImmunotherapeuticsPre-market10.41−0.27 −2.53%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 10.48 +0.67%
Open
10.70
Prev close
10.68
Day range
10.3610.84
52-week range
8.8023.29
Volume
2.41M1.64×
Mkt cap
885.96M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-3.13
EPS ttm
-3.83
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 10, 2026
From 52w high
−55.30%
MLTX market-implied price distribution
MLTX Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 97.2%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
59%
spot 10.41
Expected price
10.98
forward 11.27
68% range
7–14
−28.2% / +36.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.13 | −60.4% |
| 16% | 7.47 | −28.2% |
| 25% | 8.89 | −14.6% |
| 50% (median) | 11.15 | +7.1% |
| 75% | 13.20 | +26.8% |
| 84% | 14.24 | +36.8% |
| 95% | 16.86 | +61.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (10.93) | 53% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (11.45) | 46% |
| Down 5% or more (9.89) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (9.37) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 0.9× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.