MLM
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.Pre-market477.18−1.17 −0.24%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:01 ET · 20m delay
Open
475.70
Prev close
478.35
Day range
476.84484.82
52-week range
470.19710.97
Volume
481.98K0.69×
Mkt cap
33.89B
P/E ttm
30.95
Fwd P/E
21.79
EPS ttm
15.42
Div yield
0.70%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−32.88%
MLM market-implied price distribution
MLM Price at Expiry
45 OTM quotes · ATM IV 35.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 477.18
Expected price
479.07
forward 481.46
68% range
431–524
−9.7% / +9.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 348.26 | −27.0% |
| 16% | 430.86 | −9.7% |
| 25% | 447.75 | −6.2% |
| 50% (median) | 477.20 | +0.0% |
| 75% | 506.91 | +6.2% |
| 84% | 523.53 | +9.7% |
| 95% | 573.12 | +20.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (501.04) | 29% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (524.90) | 15% |
| Down 5% or more (453.32) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (429.46) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 0.9× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.