MLAS3.SA
MULTILASER ON NMClosedMLAS3.SA discounted cash flow valuation
MLAS3.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -30.8% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against -2.0% in this model.
Model: -2.0% from 3-yr revenue CAGR (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.56% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 3.57B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (56% of EV) | BRL 4.53B |
| Enterprise value | BRL 8.10B |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 777.45M |
| − Total debt | −BRL 418.70M |
| Equity value | BRL 8.46B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 806.69M |
| Value per share | BRL 10.49 |
| Market cap | BRL 1.86B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 0.67 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.18% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 14.6% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 18.4% |
| WACC | 8.56% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.56% | 13.19 | 14.36 | 15.85 | 17.83 | 20.59 |
| 7.56% | 10.97 | 11.70 | 12.58 | 13.69 | 15.10 |
| 8.56% | 9.42 | 9.91 | 10.49 | 11.17 | 12.01 |
| 9.56% | 8.28 | 8.63 | 9.02 | 9.49 | 10.03 |
| 10.56% | 7.41 | 7.66 | 7.95 | 8.27 | 8.65 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 585.64M | — | — |
| Year 1 | -2.0% | BRL 573.93M | 0.921 | BRL 528.67M |
| Year 2 | -2.0% | BRL 562.45M | 0.849 | BRL 477.25M |
| Year 3 | -2.0% | BRL 551.20M | 0.782 | BRL 430.82M |
| Year 4 | -2.0% | BRL 540.17M | 0.720 | BRL 388.92M |
| Year 5 | -2.0% | BRL 529.37M | 0.663 | BRL 351.08M |
| Year 6 | -1.0% | BRL 524.08M | 0.611 | BRL 320.17M |
| Year 7 | 0.0% | BRL 524.08M | 0.563 | BRL 294.92M |
| Year 8 | 1.0% | BRL 529.32M | 0.518 | BRL 274.38M |
| Year 9 | 2.0% | BRL 539.90M | 0.477 | BRL 257.80M |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | BRL 556.10M | 0.440 | BRL 244.60M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.