MHO
M/I Homes, Inc.Open126.35+0.03 +0.03%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 12:41 ET · 20m delay
Open
127.87
Prev close
126.32
Day range
126.10127.92
52-week range
116.78163.66
Volume
110.39K0.54×
Mkt cap
3.19B
P/E ttm
10.61
Fwd P/E
8.97
EPS ttm
11.91
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 21, 2026
From 52w high
−22.80%
MHO market-implied price distribution
MHO Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 40.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 126.35
Expected price
127.62
forward 126.89
68% range
110–142
−13.1% / +12.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 98.83 | −21.8% |
| 16% | 109.76 | −13.1% |
| 25% | 116.64 | −7.7% |
| 50% (median) | 125.97 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 135.57 | +7.3% |
| 84% | 142.16 | +12.5% |
| 95% | 165.53 | +31.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (132.67) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (138.99) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (120.03) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (113.72) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 0.9× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.