MGLU3.SA
MAGAZ LUIZA ON NMClosedMGLU3.SA discounted cash flow valuation
MGLU3.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: no growth rate between −50% and +100% a year matches today's price.
Model: 18.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.36% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 268.77B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (65% of EV) | BRL 496.44B |
| Enterprise value | BRL 765.21B |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 1.76B |
| − Total debt | −BRL 8.51B |
| Equity value | BRL 758.46B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 775.69M |
| Value per share | BRL 977.80 |
| Market cap | BRL 8.81B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.71 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.79% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 34.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 49.1% |
| WACC | 8.36% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.36% | 1,270.28 | 1,393.56 | 1,548.75 | 1,750.09 | 2,021.79 |
| 7.36% | 1,030.51 | 1,109.12 | 1,203.87 | 1,320.33 | 1,466.94 |
| 8.36% | 861.64 | 915.16 | 977.80 | 1,052.10 | 1,141.66 |
| 9.36% | 736.55 | 774.75 | 818.51 | 869.12 | 928.36 |
| 10.36% | 640.37 | 668.62 | 700.46 | 736.61 | 778.02 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 18.32B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 18.0% | BRL 21.62B | 0.923 | BRL 19.95B |
| Year 2 | 18.0% | BRL 25.51B | 0.852 | BRL 21.73B |
| Year 3 | 18.0% | BRL 30.10B | 0.786 | BRL 23.66B |
| Year 4 | 18.0% | BRL 35.52B | 0.725 | BRL 25.76B |
| Year 5 | 18.0% | BRL 41.91B | 0.669 | BRL 28.05B |
| Year 6 | 14.9% | BRL 48.16B | 0.618 | BRL 29.75B |
| Year 7 | 11.8% | BRL 53.84B | 0.570 | BRL 30.69B |
| Year 8 | 8.7% | BRL 58.53B | 0.526 | BRL 30.79B |
| Year 9 | 5.6% | BRL 61.80B | 0.485 | BRL 30.00B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | BRL 63.35B | 0.448 | BRL 28.38B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.