MFT.NZ
Mainfreight Limited Ordinary ShClosedMFT.NZ discounted cash flow valuation
MFT.NZ Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 3.7% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 6.8% in this model.
Model: 6.8% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.97% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | NZD 3.60B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (62% of EV) | NZD 5.83B |
| Enterprise value | NZD 9.43B |
| + Cash & investments | NZD 162.19M |
| − Total debt | −NZD 1.43B |
| Equity value | NZD 8.16B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 100.70M |
| Value per share | NZD 81.02 |
| Market cap | NZD 6.60B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.73 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.89% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 28.5% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 17.8% |
| WACC | 7.97% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.97% | 108.81 | 121.10 | 136.93 | 158.08 | 187.79 |
| 6.97% | 85.83 | 93.42 | 102.70 | 114.31 | 129.28 |
| 7.97% | 69.99 | 75.04 | 81.02 | 88.19 | 96.97 |
| 8.97% | 58.42 | 61.97 | 66.07 | 70.85 | 76.50 |
| 9.97% | 49.61 | 52.20 | 55.14 | 58.50 | 62.38 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | NZD 392.09M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 6.8% | NZD 418.75M | 0.926 | NZD 387.84M |
| Year 2 | 6.8% | NZD 447.23M | 0.858 | NZD 383.64M |
| Year 3 | 6.8% | NZD 477.64M | 0.794 | NZD 379.48M |
| Year 4 | 6.8% | NZD 510.12M | 0.736 | NZD 375.37M |
| Year 5 | 6.8% | NZD 544.81M | 0.682 | NZD 371.30M |
| Year 6 | 5.9% | NZD 577.17M | 0.631 | NZD 364.32M |
| Year 7 | 5.1% | NZD 606.49M | 0.585 | NZD 354.57M |
| Year 8 | 4.2% | NZD 632.08M | 0.541 | NZD 342.25M |
| Year 9 | 3.4% | NZD 653.32M | 0.502 | NZD 327.64M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | NZD 669.65M | 0.464 | NZD 311.04M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.