MFSL.NS
MAX FINANCIAL SERV LTDClosedMFSL.NS discounted cash flow valuation
MAX FINANCIAL SERV LTD is a insurance - life company. Its cash flows include lending and deposits, so free cash flow isn't owner earnings and this model can mislead. Compare it with peers on book value and earnings instead.
MFSL.NS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -22.2% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.64% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | INR 2.19T |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (66% of EV) | INR 4.27T |
| Enterprise value | INR 6.46T |
| + Cash & investments | INR 21.37B |
| − Total debt | −INR 23.40B |
| Equity value | INR 6.46T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 345.11M |
| Value per share | INR 18,719.99 |
| Market cap | INR 443.13B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.32% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.70 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.85% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.32% |
| Tax rate | 12.8% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 5.0% |
| WACC | 8.64% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.64% | 24,205.85 | 26,441.98 | 29,217.70 | 32,755.38 | 37,419.02 |
| 7.64% | 19,738.09 | 21,193.20 | 22,931.01 | 25,042.91 | 27,664.43 |
| 8.64% | 16,546.78 | 17,551.71 | 18,719.99 | 20,095.09 | 21,737.33 |
| 9.64% | 14,159.98 | 14,884.80 | 15,710.88 | 16,661.10 | 17,765.79 |
| 10.64% | 12,312.42 | 12,852.81 | 13,459.38 | 14,145.13 | 14,926.69 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | INR 112.28B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | INR 140.35B | 0.920 | INR 129.19B |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | INR 175.44B | 0.847 | INR 148.65B |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | INR 219.30B | 0.780 | INR 171.03B |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | INR 274.13B | 0.718 | INR 196.79B |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | INR 342.66B | 0.661 | INR 226.42B |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | INR 412.90B | 0.608 | INR 251.14B |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | INR 478.97B | 0.560 | INR 268.15B |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | INR 534.05B | 0.515 | INR 275.21B |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | INR 571.43B | 0.474 | INR 271.06B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | INR 585.72B | 0.437 | INR 255.74B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.