MFC
Manulife Financial CorporationOpen43.37+0.51 +1.18%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 20m delay
Open
42.88
Prev close
42.86
Day range
42.9243.48
52-week range
31.4145.33
Volume
745.96K0.36×
Mkt cap
71.74B
P/E ttm
16.24
Fwd P/E
12.37
EPS ttm
2.67
Div yield
3.18%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−4.33%
MFC market-implied price distribution
MFC Price at Expiry
20 OTM quotes · ATM IV 25.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 43.37
Expected price
43.68
forward 43.31
68% range
40–47
−6.6% / +7.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 37.86 | −12.7% |
| 16% | 40.49 | −6.6% |
| 25% | 41.52 | −4.3% |
| 50% (median) | 43.48 | +0.3% |
| 75% | 45.55 | +5.0% |
| 84% | 46.79 | +7.9% |
| 95% | 50.98 | +17.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (45.53) | 25% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (47.70) | 12% |
| Down 5% or more (41.20) | 22% |
| Down 10% or more (39.03) | 8.3% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 8.3%, 0.8× the 11% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.