META.SW
META PLATFORMS-AClosedMETA.SW discounted cash flow valuation
META.SW Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 21.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 20.7% in this model.
Model: 20.7% from analyst next-year revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 9.88% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CHF 517.89B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (61% of EV) | CHF 816.88B |
| Enterprise value | CHF 1.33T |
| + Cash & investments | CHF 74.86B |
| − Total debt | −CHF 93.15B |
| Equity value | CHF 1.32T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 2.21B |
| Value per share | CHF 597.01 |
| Market cap | CHF 1.57T |
USD statements converted at 0.8294 CHF.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 1.12 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 10.25% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.19% |
| Tax rate | 29.6% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 5.6% |
| WACC | 9.88% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.88% | 753.27 | 811.31 | 881.23 | 967.09 | 1,075.06 |
| 8.88% | 628.69 | 668.26 | 714.54 | 769.41 | 835.51 |
| 9.88% | 536.38 | 564.64 | 597.01 | 634.43 | 678.21 |
| 10.88% | 465.40 | 486.32 | 509.89 | 536.64 | 567.27 |
| 11.88% | 409.24 | 425.16 | 442.86 | 462.67 | 484.99 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CHF 33.98B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 20.7% | CHF 41.02B | 0.910 | CHF 37.33B |
| Year 2 | 20.7% | CHF 49.51B | 0.828 | CHF 41.01B |
| Year 3 | 20.7% | CHF 59.76B | 0.754 | CHF 45.04B |
| Year 4 | 20.7% | CHF 72.13B | 0.686 | CHF 49.48B |
| Year 5 | 20.7% | CHF 87.06B | 0.624 | CHF 54.35B |
| Year 6 | 17.2% | CHF 102.00B | 0.568 | CHF 57.95B |
| Year 7 | 13.6% | CHF 115.89B | 0.517 | CHF 59.92B |
| Year 8 | 10.1% | CHF 127.57B | 0.471 | CHF 60.03B |
| Year 9 | 6.5% | CHF 135.91B | 0.428 | CHF 58.21B |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | CHF 139.99B | 0.390 | CHF 54.56B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.