MEL.NZ
Meridian Energy Limited (NS) OrClosedMEL.NZ discounted cash flow valuation
MEL.NZ Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 8.0% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 9.8% in this model.
Model: 9.8% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.29% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | NZD 5.92B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (67% of EV) | NZD 12.00B |
| Enterprise value | NZD 17.92B |
| + Cash & investments | NZD 512.00M |
| − Total debt | −NZD 2.04B |
| Equity value | NZD 16.39B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 2.66B |
| Value per share | NZD 6.17 |
| Market cap | NZD 14.59B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 18.8% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 12.2% |
| WACC | 7.29% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.29% | 8.51 | 9.68 | 11.26 | 13.53 | 17.07 |
| 6.29% | 6.53 | 7.19 | 8.04 | 9.14 | 10.63 |
| 7.29% | 5.23 | 5.66 | 6.17 | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| 8.29% | 4.32 | 4.61 | 4.95 | 5.35 | 5.83 |
| 9.29% | 3.65 | 3.85 | 4.09 | 4.36 | 4.68 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | NZD 546.00M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 9.8% | NZD 599.51M | 0.932 | NZD 558.77M |
| Year 2 | 9.8% | NZD 658.26M | 0.869 | NZD 571.85M |
| Year 3 | 9.8% | NZD 722.77M | 0.810 | NZD 585.22M |
| Year 4 | 9.8% | NZD 793.60M | 0.755 | NZD 598.91M |
| Year 5 | 9.8% | NZD 871.37M | 0.703 | NZD 612.93M |
| Year 6 | 8.3% | NZD 944.05M | 0.656 | NZD 618.92M |
| Year 7 | 6.9% | NZD 1.01B | 0.611 | NZD 616.56M |
| Year 8 | 5.4% | NZD 1.06B | 0.570 | NZD 605.81M |
| Year 9 | 4.0% | NZD 1.11B | 0.531 | NZD 587.01M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | NZD 1.13B | 0.495 | NZD 560.80M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.